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AXNT20 KNHC 302322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 00N16W TO 02S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S BETWEEN 11W-19W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N86W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTICED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH WEAKER FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 25N. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HAITI FROM 20N70W TO 19N74W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE END OF THE FRONT TO 16N87W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE A SLIGHT E BREEZE PREVAILS S OF IT. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-78W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS SE CONUS...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N76W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 38N54W TO 31N54W TO 20N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 27N41W TO 19N40W WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N39W. THESE FEATURES ARE THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC FROM EASTERN US WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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