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AXNT20 KNHC 061733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...THE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1015 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS OF 1200 UTC WAS NEAR 27N79W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 03N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 19W AND 48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN FL AND THE BAHAMAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. NORTHWESTERLY STABLE FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE KEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN FL AND THE BAHAMAS HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA. DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND PACIFIC WATERS. DRY AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH AN ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MUDSLIDES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.


...HISPANIOLA... PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER EASTERN FL AND THE BAHAMAS AND SUPPORTS A 1015 LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N79W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N81W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 30N76W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL EAST COAST. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N54W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N24W TO 23N35W TO 23N53W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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