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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N17W TO 03N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N21W AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO 00N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N44W TO BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 10W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 40W-43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W TO N OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ARE N OF 24N E OF FRONT DUE TO MORNING FOG. FURTHER S OVER S MEXICO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-94W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10 KT SE TO S FLOW IS E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N E OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 79W-80W N OF 27N DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N57W TO 21N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N27W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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