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000
AXNT20 KNHC 311751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 12N19W to 03N20W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is on the leading edge of a moist area according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. An area of dry Saharan Air is west of the wave with dust. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic from 14N45W to 04N46W moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 700 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic from 13N58W to 03N58W moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-10N between 55W-65W.

Tropical wave is over the western Caribbean from 16N82W to 06N83W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the Atlantic near 14N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 03N30W to 07N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 08N48W and extends to 08N57W. Besides the convection mentioned on the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-06N between 23W-26W, and from 06N-10N between 49W-55W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over South Florida and the SE Gulf south of 27N and east of 83W. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the western Gulf west of 87W. An upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 27N77W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Gulf. Little change is forecast for the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and another is approaching the eastern Caribbean. See above. A 1008 mb low is centered over N colombia near 11N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 73W-79W. Further north, isolated moderate convection is over eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the Upper Levels, an upper level trough is over the Caribbean west of 77W. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to move west over the next 24 hours with convection. Also expect more upper level diffluence over the eastern Caribbean Sea with convection.


...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the western Atlantic from 30N74W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N31W to 28N40W to 31N54W. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N33W to 26N46W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 27N77W. Diffluence east of the center is producing scattered moderate convection from 21N-30N between 65W- 73W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to reach 31N25W with showers.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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