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AXNT20 KNHC 310553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N48W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...A ONCE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SEEN A BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORM WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND 31/0110 UTC INDICATE A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 17N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED NEAR A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N54W TO 18N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N48W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N30W TO 05N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N48W TO 06N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N- 13N BETWEEN 09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 09N BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 25N86W THEN NW TO 26N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N ACROSS CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 36N88W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N82W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-86W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 65W WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-85W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W- 77W.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N66W. A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 71W...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING LARGELY N OF 32N THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND N OF 24N W OF 78W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N57W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 28N46W. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 43W- 51W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF 40W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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