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AXNT20 KNHC 160024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO 18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 120W-135W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH CONVECTION.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO 20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.


...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 77W-80W DUE TO PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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