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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 17W from 2N to 10N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Meteosat enhanced imagery show the wave is being engulfed by the Saharan Air Layer, which dry air may be limiting the convection to isolated showers from 6N to 10N E of 18W.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 42W from 5N to 12N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. However, Meteosat enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear limit the convection to scattered to isolated showers from 6N to 8N between 40W and 46W.

Tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic with axis approximately at 56W S of 14N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the region limits the convection to scattered moderate convection from 6N to 10N between 46W and 58W.

Tropical wave is in the Caribbean with axis approximately at 77W S of 18N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the region limits the convection to isolated showers in the SW Caribbean E of 80W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 10N20W to 04N25W where the ITCZ begins and then continues along 03N33W to 04N45W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section above.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate across the Gulf waters being anchored by a 1016 mb high near 27N87W, which provides gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. CIRA layer precipitable water and water vapor imagery show dry air across the Gulf except from 20N to 26N W of 94W where moisture inflow from the Caribbean enhances scattered moderate convection. Little change is forecast over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean, however strong deep layer wind shear in the region inhibits convection E of 80W. However isolated showers are likely in this region S of 14N. This wave is expected to move over E Pacific waters by Tuesday night. See tropical waves section for more details. Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by east to southeasterly flow along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are elsewhere E of 71W. In the NW basin, dry air subsidence supports fair weather. Gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the Caribbean, except within 120 nm N of Venezuela between 66W and 73W where fresh wind prevails.


...HISPANIOLA...

A diffluent environment aloft between the base of a trough extending from the SE Conus and a ridge over the eastern Caribbean along with moisture being advected from the tropical Atlantic support scattered showers across the island. Showers are expected to continue through Tuesday.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the SE Conus, across the SW N Atlantic to a base over the Caribbean. East of 70W, a ridge aloft generates a diffluent environment that along with moisture advection from the tropical Atlantic support scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms between 65W and 78W. The remainder basin is dominated by surface ridging and fair weather. For tropical waves information, please refer to its section above.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ NR

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