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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N18W TO 11N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 18N AND W OF 25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 4N47W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE HAS A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 12N AND W OF 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N63W TO 13N67W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AND A 850 MB VORTICITY MAX. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-68W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 11N15W TO 10N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 9N40W TO 7N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N49W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 54W- 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL N OF THE ITCZ NEAR BARBADOS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 58W-60W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 25N. SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY 5-10 KT. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO DOTS THE N GULF N OF 25N...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 94W- 96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF HOUSTON TEXAS. A LARGER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIR MASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA HOWEVER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-80W. 30 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF 80W ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONLY 10 KT WINDS. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA... HAITI...JAMAICA...N COLOMBIA...W PANAMA...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. ANOTHER SMALLER HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 15N59W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND N VENEZUELA.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HAITI HAS AIR MASS CONVECTION. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 78W-79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W. DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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