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000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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