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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S22W TO 02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO 01N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...AND FROM 06S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 23N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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