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000
AXNT20 KNHC 302357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 1800 UTC, post-tropical cyclone Bonnie remained over coastal South Carolina. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the northeast of the center along the eastern seaboard of the United States. See latest WPC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCPAT2 and WTNT32 KWNH for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 11N14W to 02N12W moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 07W and 18W.

Tropical wave extends from 13N35W to 05N32W moving W at an estimated 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time. A Saharan air layer is noted northeast of this wave.

Tropical wave extends from 11N47W to 04N49W moving SW at around 15 kt. This wave remains embedded at the western end of a broad area of deep moisture over the central Atlc. Isolated moderate convection is present along and up to 210 nm either side of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 12N79W to 05N75W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northwestern South America and portions of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 12N between 72W and 77W. This convection is likely being enhanced by the presence of a middle to upper level trough.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 05N25W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 03N30W to 01N49W. There is little associated convection at this time.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered near 28N91W and supports gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf northeast of a line from 22N85W to 28N97W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are over the southwestern Gulf, especially near a thermally induced surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula from 18N91W to 21N88W. Otherwise, little change and relatively quiet weather is forecast over the Gulf basin over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough extends from north of the Bahamas at 32N79W to central Cuba to the southwestern Caribbean near 14N80W. Dry air and subsidence dominates the northwest Caribbean northwest of the trough axis. The interaction of the base of this trough with a westward moving tropical wave supports convection over the southwestern Caribbean south of 14N. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Gentle to moderate trade winds cover the western Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds are present over the southeastern Caribbean. During the next 24 hours deep moisture will combine with divergent upper levels winds east of the trough axis to trigger showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles.


...HISPANIOLA... The axis of a middle to upper level trough continues to linger just to the west of the area. The environment east of the trough axis will maintain enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola for the next couple of days.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Bonnie has been downgraded to a post tropical remnant low. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A broad middle to upper trough extends from north of the Bahamas to central Cuba. The surface reflection of this upper trough takes the form of a surface trough. The trough extends from near 32N76W to 28N73W to 22N73W. Moderate convection is aligned along the trough axis and eastward up to 120 nm. Scattered thunderstorms are over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Another surface trough extends from 24N68W to 28N54W..but little weather is associated with this feature. Farther east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 29N41W to 28N56W. No deep convection is noted. A surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1023 mb surface high centers near 26N49W and 27N29W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc. Three tropical waves remain over the tropical Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MCELROY

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