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000
AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N28W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 33W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N95W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N90W TO 30N87W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN- CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS E OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO THE LOW TO 15N87W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN ENHANCES MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 27N75W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-49W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W- 45W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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