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AXNT20 KNHC 271148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27N72W and is currently interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting scattered moderate convection within 180 nm of the northern semicircle of the low. A surface trough extends from 29N70w, to the low, to 24N73W. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. There is a high chance for this system to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of West Africa with the axis extending from 17N17W to 05N18W. The wave has a well- defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis and the couple of West African rawindsondes. The wave also has a prominent maximum of moisture along its axis, as depicted by the total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm of the wave axis south of 08N.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with an axis that extends from 14N50W to 03N50W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track and only is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics at 700 mb. No significant deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A third tropical wave is located near the Windward Islands, extending from 16N62W to 07N62W. The wave is associated with a maximum of moisture and surface to 850 mb cyclonic curvature of the winds, though it is not apparent at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection may be associated with the wave over northern Colombia.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ begins near 05N19W and continues to 02N33W then to 05N47W. An area of scattered moderate convection prevails within 60 nm of the ITCZ east of 26W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida peninsula to Texas. Winds are generally northeast to easterly 10-15 kt in the eastern Gulf and southeast to southerly 15-20 kt in the western Gulf, peaking at 20-25 kt along the Texas coast. Only widely scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the Texas and southwest Florida coasts. Winds will further diminish over the next two days across the Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the northwestern Gulf today, but less likely on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection near Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. A 1009 mb low that anchors the Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough is located near 11N75W in the southwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low. The usual robust north- to-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is substantially reduced, and the resulting tradewinds are only 10-15 kt across the Caribbean, except 20 kt near the coast of Colombia. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produce scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over the central Caribbean including the Greater Antilles during the next two days. The tradewinds will remain relatively weak through Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over Haiti. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a low near 27N72W. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends across the North Atlantic from near the coast of North Carolina to a 1023 mb high centered near 35N69W to 32N49W. The resulting modest pressure gradient equatorward of the ridge is generally producing 10-20 kt tradewind easterlies. Numerous cold, high clouds are observed between 10N-20N east of 45W. However, it is likely that few showers are occurring below this primarily cirrus cloudiness. A weak 1014 mb low is centered at 28N30W with a cold front extending west from the low to 31N41W. Scattered showers are located within 120 nm of the low. Continued relatively weak tradewinds and a lack of large-scale convection are expected during the next couple of days. The frontal low should dissipate within a day or so.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ LANDSEA/RAMOS

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