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000
AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N18W TO 12N21W TO 6N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MAINLY N OF 15N WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 7N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W TO 5N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N37W TO 6N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO A 1009 MB LOW W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO HONDURAS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SHOWERS WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 68W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-33N BETWEEN 53W-59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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