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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier today. There is a broad area of low pressure associated with the wave, which axis is near 20W. This wave, not depicted in the 0000 UTC analysis map, is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a very moist environment and is under a divergent flow aloft, which is supporting heavy showers and tstms from 03N-09N E of 29W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 16N36W to 03N40W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection N of 5N. Numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms associated with the ITCZ are from 02N-05N between 38W and 47W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 17N54W to inland Guyana near 05N57W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear S of 10N and is in a very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Scattered to isolated showers are S of 17N between 52W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 18N71W to inland Venezuela near 08N72W, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear and a deep layer dry environment that hinder deep convection at the time.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 08N13W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 07N21W and continues to 08N30W to 05N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N41W and continues to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered heavy showers are from 04N-10N between 32W-36W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends SW across the north-central and NE Gulf where a 1019 mb high formed near 28N84W supporting light to gentle variable winds. The upper level low that was in the Bay of Campeche Saturday morning is now over the NW Gulf waters. Upper level divergence being generated between its SE periphery and a broad upper ridge over the EPAC waters just S of Mexico support heavy showers and tstms S of 25N, including the Bay of Campeche. This convective activity is also being supported by moisture inflow from tropical depression four located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico. Heavy showers and tstms will continue in the SW Gulf and will extend to the NW basin later today. This shower activity is forecast to continue at least through Tuesday. Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary over the southern United States will drift into the northern Gulf coast today, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coastal waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms are in the far NW Caribbean associated with the rainbands of tropical depression four located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are over Caribbean waters between Colombia and Panama associated with the EPAC monsoon trough, which extends across Panama and connect with a 1009 mb low over Colombia. A tropical wave moves across the central basin, thus supporting fresh to near gale force winds from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W and fresh to strong between 68W and 77W. These winds are forecast to prevail through Sunday night. Otherwise, a tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles has started to generate isolated heavy showers and tstms across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.


...HISPANIOLA...

Widely scattered showers will affect the southern portion of the island through Sunday as a tropical wave passes to the south.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high centered N of the Azores near 39N27W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos

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