AXNT20 KNHC 292332

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


A cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico in 18 hours and extend from 30N93W to 26N96W to 22N98W. Gale force winds are expected between 22N-24N west of front on 30/1200 UTC. These conditions will continue through early Monday, when the front will be over the eastern portion of the basin. The pressure gradient will then relax across the southwest Gulf. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends form the coast of west Africa near 08N13W to 05N14W. A surface trough is off the coast of west Africa from 07N17W to 01N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N19W to 01S26W to 01N37W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the surface trough axis. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 05S-04N between 20W-30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-05N between 30W-54W.



15-30 kt SW return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient is fairly tight over the W Gulf, W of 90W, where winds are 25-30 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over W Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. Areas of smoke are over the W Gulf W of 88W, moving NW restricting visibility along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 82W. Broken high clouds extend from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf. A Gale is expected over the NW Gulf in 18 hours behind a cold front. See above.


15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over numerous locations this evening due to maximum diurnal heating namely: E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 82W. Expect similar weather over the next 24 hours with the addition of convection over the Leeward Islands.


Presently scattered moderate convection and scattered showers are over the island due to maximum diurnal heating, and upper level diffluence. Expect a repeat tomorrow evening especially over the Dominican Republic.


A 1028 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N65W. An area of scattered showers are N of Hispaniola from 20N-23N between 66W-72W. Another 1029 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N41W. Further E, a 1012 mb surface low is SW of the Canary Islands near 23N24W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-60W. Another small upper level low is just W of the Canary Islands near 27N20W enhancing showers along the coast of Morocco.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa