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AXNT20 KNHC 011119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 23N78W...AND A NEW FRONT FROM 31N78W TO 29.5N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 28N83W TO 26N87W TO 29N95W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N55W 17N58W 14N61W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE. IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W 18N61W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 10N TO 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...CURVING TO 8N16W AND 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 5N30W AND 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO FLORIDA...AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO... RACING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK... KGHB...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.


...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N60W...AND TO 18N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N55W 17N58W 14N61W IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N54W.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN GENERAL COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.03 IN BERMUDA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA 8NS PANAMA ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE 79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.A.-TO FLORIDA-AND GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N40W AND 10N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N15W...TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLAND TO 23N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 32N14W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N42W 26N50W AND 21N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 60W...AND AWAY FROM THE 20N55W 17N58W 14N61W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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