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AXNT20 KNHC 051046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 08N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 15W-21W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE TROUGHING LACKS A SURFACE FRONT...SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W TO THE WESTERN HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE THE PRIMARY INGREDIENT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 74W-85W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 78W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER...HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS... AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 23N77W TO 27N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-31N W OF 67W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 37N29W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N38W SW TO 25N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 22W-36W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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