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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180 NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF 26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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