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AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 16N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 12N55W TO 7N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE HAS A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N73W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AND A 850 MB VORTICITY MAX. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 9N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N35W TO 9N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 8N58W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 12W-21W....AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA...THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER S TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W- 85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 24N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-80W. 25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N AND W OF 82W ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONLY 10 KT WINDS. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA... HAITI...JAMAICA... PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND N GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N58W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY S OF 15N. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA COAST.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HAITI HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECT A DECREASE OF CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FULL PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE USUAL AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FORT PIERCE AND W OF 79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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