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AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 09N WITH AN AXIS ALONG 24W TO 25W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 7N JUST WEST OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 24N AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED OVER PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 62W...MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WHICH IS ALSO WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND 52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. AS OF 1600 UTC THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS FROM 29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N WEST OF 96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE GULF BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N78W TO 18N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. CONVECTION EAST OF THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. EXPECT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

THE ISLAND IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ON SATURDAY...DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W TO 62W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 28W BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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