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AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND THOSE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N57W 11N59W 7N60W IN GUYANA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N66W 10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N59W 22N65W 17N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 20N67W 17N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 8N23W TO 6N24W TO 6N34W 4N36W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 8N25W 6N36W 5N46W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO 26N96W OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI... TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N86W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N92W 18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N86W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 16N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24- HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N28W AND 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N40W 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N30W AND 23N43W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N56W TO 27N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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