AXNT20 KNHC 241746

205 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N03W to 13N02W moving W at 10 kt. the wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough between the Prime Meridian and 08W. Largely remaining across inland west Africa...scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 03W and 09W.

Tropical wave extends from 02N31W to 09N31W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with weak 700 mb troughing between 28W and 36W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 25W and 33W.

Tropical wave extends from 02N52W to 09N48W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a subtle mid-level 700 mb trough and associated relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis near 05N. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 52W and 55W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N76W to 13N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is located within the southwestern periphery of a mid- level ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc waters near 21N65Wand broad mid-level troughing between 70W and 82W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 74W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N20W to 03N34W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection iswithin 90 nm either side of the axis between 14W and 29W.


GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf basin is under the influence of upper-level NW flow which is providing a mostly stable environment aloft. At the surface...a ridge is anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across the SE CONUS with primarily gentle to moderate E-SE surface winds E of 90W and moderate to occasional fresh SE surface winds W of 90W. This general synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Friday into Saturday with little variation expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains relatively strong due to a ridge anchored across the central Atlc and lower pressure noted across northwestern South America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across the basin with the strongest winds occurring across the south-central portion of the basin between 66W and 76W. As the ridge remains nearly stationary at 1033 mb centered near 34N43Wthrough the next 24 hours...then begins to gradually shiftwest...the gradient across the Caribbean will relax by Thursday and trades are forecast to range within the moderatetofresh breeze levels through the upcoming weekend. Otherwise...an upper level trough axis extends southward from over the SW North Atlc region along 78W and continues toprovidemiddle to upper level support for scattered showersandtstms N of 16N between 70W and 79W...includingtheWindward Passage region. In addition...nearthebase of the troughing aloft and in closeproximity to the Monsoon Trough axis along 09N and a tropical wave along 76W...scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 12N between 73W and 83W.

...HISPANIOLA... An upper level trough axis along 78W is promoting a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island this afternoon with scattered showers and tstms occurring from 16N to 22N between 67W and 76W...including much of the adjacent coastal waters. This overall upper level diffluent pattern is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend keeping probability high for precipitation and active convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered offshore over the NECONUS with troughing dipping southward over much of the SW North Atlc region this afternoon. The trough supports a coldfront entering the discussion area near 32N68W extending SW to the NW Bahamas near 26N79W. Upper level diffluence along with low-level moisture convergence east of the front and upper level troughing is generating scattered showers and tstms from 20N to 27N east of the front between 66W and 76W...and within 150 nm east of the front N of 27N. Otherwise...a 1021 mb high is centered across South Carolina and will slide offshore by Wednesday continuing the gradual clearing and fair weather conditions expected west of the front. Finally...a 1033 mb high is centered near 34N43W across the central Atlc that is providing relatively tranquil conditions E of 60W.

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