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AXNT20 KNHC 301151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRED AT 30/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 19.3W AT 30/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 272 NM E-SE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 120 NM SW OF THE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 48W/ 49W FROM 9N-19N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF AEROSOLS OR DUST RIDING N OF THE INVERTED V THAT IS THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 64W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. FRED NEAR 11N21W TO 8N38W. THE ITCZ IS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27N87W ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS IS ALL COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE W TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING THEN NW THROUGH THE E GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS TO W CUBA THEN NE INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N69W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA WILL MOVE NW OVER CUBA THIS MORNING THEN OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE.


...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE APPROACHING THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 31N72W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-78W. A ELONGATED E/W UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W ALONG 27N52W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N69W AND A 1019 HIGH NEAR 24N40W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA WILL MOVE NW INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW/NR

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