Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 6N18W TO 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N32W THEN RESUMES NEAR 3N35W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 5N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-9W...AND FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-43W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW ATLC. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N W OF 87W TO OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N95W ALONG 26N96W TO 23N96W. LOCALLY DENSE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG WILL DISPERSE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING AND FROM MOBILE BAY ALABAMA TO 18N95W BY TUE EVENING THEN FROM SANIBEL ISLAND FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED EVENING BEFORE MOVING SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING S ACROSS PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75W S OF 10N TO OVER COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THU AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE THU EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E ON WED. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 26N44W THEN W ALONG 25N60W THEN SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 32N59W TO 27N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N52W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 25N57W TO 22N60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N39W TO 21N41W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 47W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC LATER TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA ON TUE NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

Home