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AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1500 UTC A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO 22N95W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO S MEXICO AT 18N92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE GULF WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N23W TO 7N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 3N-16N E OF 29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N57W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N68W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W TO 5N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N31W TO 10N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA
...THE CENTRAL GULF...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 83W-87W. TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTER BAHAMAS AT 24N74W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HAITI DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NW OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N74W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 63W-70W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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