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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 54W-47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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