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AXNT20 KNHC 031047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 33.2W AT 03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 600 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 30W-33W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 03/0600 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1012 MB LOW PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N23.5W TO 10N23W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 23W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 48W FROM 7N-14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO 10N82W MOVING W-SW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N W OF THE WAVE TO JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 11N18W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N23.5W CONTINUING ALONG 13N30W 10N41W TO 7N49W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 30W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N E OF 17W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N95W TO 22N94W WHERE IT MEETS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 24N94W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 23N89W TO 19N91W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 27N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SE GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N85W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALIGN NW TO SE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE SE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 17N74W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N84W CONTINUING TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG 10N81W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF E PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. THE SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRI MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 17N74W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N84W. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N/S ORIENTATED TONIGHT GIVING THE ISLAND N FLOW ALOFT FRI AND SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT MORNING INCREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING JUST OFF THE SE COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W- 65W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 26N54W TO 24N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 46W-50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-69W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS BEING INTRUDED BY T.S. FRED AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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