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AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG 25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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