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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA NEAR 25N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING W FROM THE LOW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAT NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 6N-13N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N49W TO 6N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 68W/69W FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N17W TO 7N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N32W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 9N1W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 43W- 49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS GEORGIA TO OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 27N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0300 UTC HAS EXITED THE GULF BUT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. SEE BELOW. LINGERING LOW/MID MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 84W. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER S MEXICO COVERING THE FAR S GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR TONIGHT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N84W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N88W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SE LATER SUN. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST SE OF THE FRONT BY SAT EVENING NEAR 17N81W WHERE IT WILL DRIFT/MEANDER AND BECOME ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT THEN LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON.

HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR HAITI LATE SUN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND INTO MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO CLIPS THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW...IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...AND IS CENTERED NEAR 25N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N58W ALONG 29N65W 26N73W TO THE SAME 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 25N68W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONT TO 31N BETWEEN 69W-75W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE LOW/FRONT TO 28N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N22W ALONG 22N40W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 29N31W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N- 30N BETWEEN 23W-32W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED NW OF THE AZORES. THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE WILL MOVE E-NE ALONG THE FRONT WEAKENING NE OF THE AREA LATE SAT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS STALLING FROM 32N59W ALONG 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SUN. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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