Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF ITS AXIS IS ALONG 17W AND IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR ACCORDING TO METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN METEOSAT IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 69W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 09N30W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N- 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 36W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N TO 29N E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 69W AND ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS N-NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 13N W OF 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.


...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N71W ALONG WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS BETWEEN THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N65W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

Home