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AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W. BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO 20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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