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AXNT20 KNHC 281722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W THEN ALONG 4N12W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. THE ITCZ COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 48W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE S GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 24N94W WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NE MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR TAMPA BAY ON MON AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 19N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N78W 20N80W TO 18N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE ABOVE LIE WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS CUBA REACHING FROM FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS ON SUN THEN LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS ON MON. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO STRONG DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD POP UP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR HAITI EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOR HAITI SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N75W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N69W ALONG 24N73W TO 21N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N49W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N36W TO 25N39W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THIS EVENING THEN FROM 32N60W ALONG 24N65W TO HAITI ON SUN EVENING AND FROM 32N53W 21N65W W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MON EVENING. THE E/CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ALONG 27N ON SUN THEN SHIFT N ON MON AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR 30N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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