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AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.5N 37.5W OR ABOUT 413 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS DISSIPATED. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N21W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 10N21W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WEST AFRICA. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N- 14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N46W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 42W-55W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N69W TO 12N70W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N30W TO 9N37W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 10N45W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W... AND FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 50W-60W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 80W-97W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO S TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO N FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 28N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W- 70 W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W AND A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW TO 32N70W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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