348
AXNT20 KNHC 010457
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a
subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern
South America and a passing tropical wave result in strong to
gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured gale-force winds off
northern Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with
these winds. Winds and seas will subside somewhat by late this
morning, but winds will pulse again to near gale-force tonight
into Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds will continue into the
weekend.
Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 16N,
moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 10N and between 21W and 35W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N,
moving westward around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N and between 37W and 43W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 15N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
evident along the trough axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N,
moving westward around 15-20 kt. A few showers are evident near
the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N25W and to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N41W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present
south of 10N and east of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers across the
eastern and SW Gulf waters. The basin is influenced by a broad
subtropical ridge near Bermuda that sustains fresh to locally
strong easterly winds west of 90W and south of 25N based on
recent scatterometer satellite wind data. Seas in these waters
are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes
and moderate seas are found in the rest of the western Gulf and
south of 25N in the eastern Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually
improve overnight across the western Gulf. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will continue across the eastern Gulf through midweek,
before a weak cold front sinks southward across north Florida and
adjacent Gulf waters Fri, and is forecast to stall in the northern
Gulf through Sat.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could develop from the
weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over
Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or
subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves
little. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Also, two tropical
waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the TROPICAL
WAVES section for more details.
An upper level low north of the Bahamas is enhancing convection
across western Cuba and surrounding waters. Similar convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean, while drier conditions are noted
elsewhere. Aside from the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N. Light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident north of
20N.
For the forecast, winds have pulsed to gale force offshore
Colombia in the south-central and southwest Caribbean and a gale
warning has been issued. Very rough seas are also building. Winds
and seas will subside somewhat by late this morning, but winds
will pulse again to near gale-force tonight into Wed morning. The
pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure
across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support fresh to
strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW
Caribbean through Wed, then diminish N of 15N into the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details.
An upper level level low is evident on satellite imagery near the
NW Bahamas, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
west of 72W. Farther east, a weak surface trough is located a few
hundred miles SE of Bermuda and a few shallow showers are noted
near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west
of 55W, is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated that this ridge is forcing strong
easterly winds off northern Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are found south of 25N and west of 55W. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere west of
55W.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
subtropical ridge in the northern Atlantic. The tight pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
support fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 19N and east of 35W.
Satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago also captured
near gale-force N winds in the waters passages of the Canary
Islands. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft (2-3 m). Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of
25N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to
maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to
drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late
afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola through the end
of the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off
the SE U.S. coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall
there through Sat. Low pressure may form along the front during
this time.
$$
Delgado
