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AXNT20 KNHC 221802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH WED...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N38W TO 12N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 3-6 HOURS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 5N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM 11N49W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN E OF 29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A 1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 86W-93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND EXTREME SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH WED. EXPECT ACTIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF CUBA W OF 77W DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 77W WITH NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. TWO IN THE DEEP TROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MUNDELL

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