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AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 28W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR 85W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W TO 11N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N E OF 18W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. GALE-FORCE WIND ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION STARTING 0600 UTC...THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E BASIN SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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