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AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 00N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 20W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS LOW IS EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT TO THE W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THEN REACHING NE MEXICO...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS LOW OR ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF EACH SIDE OF THIS FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK LOW OVER THE W GULF TO DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW CUBA THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE SLIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF THE BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION TO SHEAR LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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