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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N34W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 9N39W. THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-41W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N16W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOME LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N88W TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 9N89W MOVING W AT 25 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 11N15W TO 8N20W TO 10N34W TO 7N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 41W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N FLORIDA...AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N97W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MOREOVER EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE N GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N27W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 62W-71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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