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000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 4N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N18W TO 2N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W- 29W...AND FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 44W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W095W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 28N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 82W-89W. 20-30 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE...AND STUART...MOVING E. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N TEXAS NEAR 34N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA AND WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA AT 16N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF FORT LAUDERDALE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 43W-67W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 29N25W TO 25N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS W OF 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO S FLORIDA WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION E OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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