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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 32.7N 79.6W at 29/1200 UTC or about 22 nm ESE of Charleston South Carolina and about 70 nm SSW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N to 33N between 79W and 82W. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N33W to 10N31W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W and 36W and a maximum in 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 07N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 30W and 35W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N63W to 12N64W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 62W and 66W on the southern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge anchored east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 61W and 66W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N81W to 12N81W moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 79W and 85W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 06N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N18W to 04N33W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between the Prime Meridian and 06W...from 04N to 08N between 23Wand 30W...and from 04N to 09N between 50W and 56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the Florida panhandle near 31N86W SE to over the central Bahamas near 23N74W with primarily NW flow prevailing over much of the Gulf basin this morning. Water vapor imagery indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is further supported by a 1019 mb high centered in the NE Gulf waters near 30N88W. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite imagery with a few scattered convective debris clouds across the western waters. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected Sunday and this synoptic pattern is expected through much of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable W-NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 70W. Conditions W of 70W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring S of Jamaica from 16N to 18N between 75W and 81W. The presence of a tropical wave along 81W is also enhancing scattered showers and tstms S of 12N W of 75W...including inland portions of Central America. E of 70W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence is providing for scattered showers and tstms E of 66W. The upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday...however upper level troughing will persist across the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola... Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday. This will result in increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-central and NE Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters this morning due to a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island on the southern periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week providing higher probability for precipitation and convection through the weekend into the first half of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SW North Atlc waters this morning as it tracks towards the South Carolina coast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis extending from over the Florida panhandle to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N to 28N between 67W and 76W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio of high centers influence the central and eastern Atlc...a 1025 mb high centered near 31N21W...a 1025 mb high centered near 28N30W and a 1024 mb high centered near 27N48W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 55W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ HUFFMAN

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