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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 08N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N27W to 08N35W to 09N42W to 08N52W to 12N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 09W-37W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Gulf with axis extending from 31N93W to a base over the SW Gulf waters near 21N96W. The trough supports a weakening and dissipating stationary front extending from the Florida Straits near 25N80W to 22N90W to 20N96W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front...and across much of the central Gulf waters between 86W-92W. Otherwise...generally gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the basin this evening on the southwestern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across coastal Carolina near 35N76W. The troughing moving over the basin will induce surface troughing across the eastern waters and a frontal wave across the western waters early Wednesday with fresh to strong northerly winds expected to materialize by Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Global models indicate cyclogenesis across central and eastern portions of the basin Wednesday night into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the western Caribbean with a ribbon of mid-level energy stretching from over the Windward Passage region W-SW to over portions of Central America in the vicinity of Honduras and El Salvador. This mid-level energy is supporting a pair of surface troughs...one analyzed from 11N78W to 20N73W and the other analyzed from 09N83W to 17N82W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 16N between 68W-79W...and S of 17N between 78W-85W. A portion of this activity extends NE of Hispaniola into the Atlc waters. Otherwise...moderate trades are noted E of 77W and moderate to occasional fresh NE winds occurring W of 77W. This pattern is forecast to persist through Thursday night.


...HISPANIOLA... Located between a pair of surface troughs...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the island this evening. The surface troughing will be slow to move and dissipate through Wednesday...so little change is expected through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N62W and continues SW to 28N70W becoming stationary to the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front. To the N of the front...surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across coastal Carolina near 35N76W. SE of the front...mid-level shortwave troughing is in the vicinity of 25N66W and supports a surface trough analyzed from eastern Hispaniola near 19N69W to 25N65W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N-27N between 56W-73W. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 26N39W supporting a 1008 mb low centered near 32N29W with the associated cold front extending SW from the low to 24N40W to 19N51W becoming stationary to 21N58W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 25N between 18W-37W...and within 120 nm either side of the front. To the N of the front a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 31N50W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ HUFFMAN

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