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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 3N19W TO 3N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N37W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W- 53W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-24W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER RADAR INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 15N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS AND IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AND COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO EARLY SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 63W-72W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W- 81W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT OVER THE WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE ISLAND E OF 72W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 16N71W 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 62W-73W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N77W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N60W TO 24N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 52W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N- 28N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N34W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N31W TO 27N28W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 20N32W TO 15N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 25W-36W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N34W ALONG 22N39W TO 23N44W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE SAT WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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