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AXNT20 KNHC 280952
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N. SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W- 41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR DETAILS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE SE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND SUPPORT A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W WHICH IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT BASIN-WIDE. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N91W TO 17N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N E OF 94W. ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ALONG 82W IS NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST AND TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF 17N W OF 80W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N62W IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. CLEAR SKIES AND TRADES OF 10- 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING.


...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N63W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 57W-60W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N26W SW TO 26N37W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N44W. THESE TWO FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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