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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 17N18W TO 6N20W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE LIMITING CONVECTION TO S OF 12N. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN 18W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO 9N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W TO 5N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-34W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO 14N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W COVERING THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 88W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W CONTINUING 27N88W TO 26N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N E OF 89W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N BEFORE EXITING WED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES E-NE AND WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN SW ALONG 16N70W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PANAMA S OF THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE BASIN EARLY TUE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 60W-65W AND N OF 31N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N23W. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY TUE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. AND FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS BY THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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