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AXNT20 KNHC 031716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 03N32W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-01S AND E OF 28W...AND FROM 04N- 02S AND W OF 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 24N-25N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 18N90W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N83W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-81W AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF PANAMA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A LIGHTER NW FLOW IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.


...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB SURFACE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N80W. TO THE E...A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N59W EXTENDS ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 36N53W TO 23N71W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 71W-78W. A BROAD 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N48W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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