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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W- 48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 35N81W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINLY N OF 24N. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N72W TO 12N85W. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG EACH BOUNDARIES. TRADE WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONTS. AT UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DRIFT E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 30N61W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 20N72W TO 42N51W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 24N30N BETWEEN 57W-67W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 40W-46W. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N38W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 27N. A 984 MB SURFACE LOW IS AT ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE NW AFRICA COAST NEAR 36N10W. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 29N AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MERGE AND MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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