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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W- 14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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