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AXNT20 KNHC 031014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N33W TO 09N33W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S OF 13N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DUST INTRUSION N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW THAT HAD BEEN ANALYZED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND EXTENDS FROM 20N42W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N71W TO 12N71W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE N OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W TO 12N31W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N35W TO 11N50W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N59W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS N FL. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N83W ALONG THE BIG BEND OF FL WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 26N88W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH...AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A MOIST AIRMASS EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO THE TX COAST...AND ALSO S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N W OF 85W...AND E OF 89W S OF 26N. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N83W SUPPORTING GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE S GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SW TO W WINDS COVER THE N GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TODAY AND THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE INTERACTION OF A MOIST AIRMASS WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION N OF 17N. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON TUESDAY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AIRMASS.


...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 26N67W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N55W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N FL COAST INCLUDING NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS...AND ALSO NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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