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AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY E OF THE STRONG FRONT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 2N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-21W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N88W TO 23N96W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER MEXICO TO THE PLAIN STATES ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVER SE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE PASSING SE OF THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE W/CENTRAL AND W GULF THROUGH TUE. A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SETTING UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND ON WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND A SECOND NE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON THU. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU.


...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING W OF 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE TUE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO ALONG 31N64W TO 28N70W WHERE THE FRONT IS AGAIN COLD AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF AZORES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 22N44W. THE REMNANT FRONT WILL MEANDER FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC ON TUE. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THEN SLOW FROM 32N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT WASHING OUT N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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