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AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W 5N25W 6N29W AND 4N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS TO OKLAHOMA...AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST/TEXAS BIG BEND...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS 28N86W 29N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 29N96W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N98W IN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER 28N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W INTO WEST TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO 97W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 21N97W 24N90W...26N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR ALSO IS REACHING THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH AND KEHC AND KMDJ AND KDLP WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIKT...KVOA... KVKY...AND KMIS. KBBF IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ALSO COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS...TOWARD COZUMEL AND CANCUN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N85W...CURVING AROUND THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO 9N83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 13N84W 12N80W 10N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.26 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.08 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 9N83W.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA...FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AR IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N BEYOND 32N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W... 26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 27N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N70W AND 31N76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 27N56W 25N60W 27N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N44W AND 20N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 46W FROM 26N TO 31N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W 21N33W...AND TO 16N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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