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AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180 NM E AND240 NM W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 3N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32N-35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF AND THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING A PORTION OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N95W AND A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE PLAIN STATES/E ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE W GULF BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM THE NW GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BLOCKING THE COLD FRONTS TO THE E GULF THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND RACE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE E GULF ON TUE NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 18N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA EARLY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA ON TUE AND WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.


...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN MON. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W GIVING THE W ATLC W FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 27N40W TO 24N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N40W TO 22N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WHICH THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH SPLIT AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON REACHING FROM 32N72W TO NW CUBA MON EVENING AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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