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AXNT20 KNHC 232335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 09N31W TO 03N32W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 08N WITH THE WAVE WHILE DRIER AIR PREVAILS N OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 29N-36W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 05N30W THEN RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N35W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 18W-28W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS E OF 93W. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW REACHING THE GULF. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT CONTINUES CENTERED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER-LEVEL NW FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THAT COULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W- 79W. OVER THIS AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE DEPICTED. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N69W AND EXTENDS TO 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N59W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N- 26N BETWEEN 56W-60W. TO THE E OF THIS CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 27N48W. A BROAD 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATION ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC E OF 50W WHILE A LIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS W OF 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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