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AXNT20 KNHC 282347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 28/2100 UTC...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N 61.5W MOVING NE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-41N BETWEEN 57W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 37N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N31W TO 11N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 11N45W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NO CONVECTION ALSO AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N67W TO 10N70W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W- 73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N85W TO 10N85W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS IS JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL AMERICA AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC WATERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-92W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 09N22W TO 10N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 29W-33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 11N51W TO 09N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 12N48W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 49W-59W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N97W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO 20N92W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N81W TO 25N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 88W-93W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER N MEXICO WITH CENTER NEAR 24N103W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N86W. A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N96W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE...PLEASE SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 74W-82W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAIL FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W- 74W RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-82W IS MOVING SW TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLAND AND A MOISTURE SURGE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 45W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N78W TO 26N80W. A SURFACE 1020MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N63W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N78W. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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