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AXNT20 KNHC 261631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC... A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. SEE THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 06W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND OVER THE GULF TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO THE SW FL COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS S FL TO NORTHERN CUBA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE BY 06Z TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO ST. VINCENT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT.


...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE US SUPPORTS A 996 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 29N TO THE FL COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W TO 30N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W TO 54W. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E TO NEAR 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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