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AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W FROM 5N-12N MOVING NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW AND GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N28W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N40W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE NEAR 7N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N89W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF COATZACOALCOS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 89W- 92W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19N-20N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SAT AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N78W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 75W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE W TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 23N46W AND THE SECOND FROM 30N56W TO 25N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N51W TO 28N56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N45W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N60W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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