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AXNT20 KNHC 271107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY. A GALE IS AGAIN EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO...DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO- FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 1N20W TO 0N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 8W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 22W-38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BELIZE AT 17N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA RANGE FROM 36 F AT PENSACOLA TO 70 F AT MIAMI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15- 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MOROCCO. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.



FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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