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AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N E OF 20W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR 31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN. ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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