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AXNT20 KNHC 251138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT...REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N34W TO 05N40W TO 06N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA AND CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N E OF 95W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WITHIN AROUND 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AFFECTING SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WELL AS HAVANA CUBA. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE CONUS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PASSING SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ACCORDING TO THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THEN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DOMINATES THE BASIN PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES ON SUN WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ENTERED THE SW N ATLC. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOW IS APPROACHING THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 25N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY THE GREATER ANTILLES...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...BY SUN. FARTHER EAST...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N65W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERING ALSO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N28W THE EXTENDS SW TO 24N34W TO 20N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN AROUND 150 NM N OF 25N AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF 25N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 24N W OF FRONT TO ABOUT 46W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ GR

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