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AXNT20 KNHC 201726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N45W TO 5N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 43W-52W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N17W TO 7N23W TO 5N37W TO 9N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 32W-38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 89W-97W. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-89W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA FROM 10N- 15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND OVER JAMAICA... AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 61W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND TUE
...WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 28N70W TO NEAR COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. A 996 MB GALE LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W TO 21N20W TO 18N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N23W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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