AXNT20 KNHC 290555

205 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 31.5N 79.4W at 29/0600 UTC or about 90 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina and about 135 nm S of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N to 33N between 79W and 82W. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 02N31W to 11N29W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W and 34W and a maximum in 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity ofthewaveaxis near 08N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 29W and 33W.

Tropical wave extends from 01N61W to 10N61W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 60W and 64W on the southern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge anchored east of the Lesser Antilles near 14N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 60W and 67W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N80W to 12N80W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 77W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N17W to 05N30W to 02N38W to02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 13W and 18W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the Florida panhandle near 31N86W SE to over the central Bahamas near 24N76W with primarily NW flow prevailing over much of the Gulf basin this evening. Water vapor imagery indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is further supported by a 1018 mb high centered in the NE Gulf waters near 29N85W. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite imagery with a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across eastern Mexico impacting the waters S of 26N within 90 nm of the coast. Gentle to moderate E- SE winds are expected through the overnight period into Sunday and this synoptic pattern is expected through much of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 72W. Conditions W of 72W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers occurring S-SW of Jamaica from 15N to 19N between 74W and 82W. The presence of a tropical wave along 80W is also enhancing scattered showers and tstms S of 12N W of 77W...including inlandportions of Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua. E of 72W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence is providing for scattered showers and tstms E of 67W. The upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday...however upper level troughing will persist across the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday. This will result is increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-central and NE Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters this evening due to a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island on the southern periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week providing higher probability for precipitation and convection through the weekend into the first half of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SW North Atlc waters this evening as it tracks towards the South Carolina coast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis extending fromover the Florida panhandle to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N to 28N between 68W and 75W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio of high centers influence the central and eastern Atlc...a1026mbhigh centered near 28N31W...a 1025 mb highcenterednear 28N48W and a 1026 mb high centered near34N62W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 55W.

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