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AXNT20 KNHC 122157 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W AND 02N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...AND CONTINUING IN THE AREA FROM 01S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE ENERGY AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TOMBALL TO CONROE TO HUNTSVILLE. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TWO TO THREE HOURS AGO...HAVE CLEARED UP. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE AND IN PATTERSON...BATON ROUGE...IN AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.26 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.05 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST...AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A COL POINT WILL BE ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND EVENTUALLY IT WILL MOVE TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE COL POINT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE...BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE VARIABLE WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO...BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO 27N60W...TO 22N66W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 350 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W...TO 20N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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