AXNT20 KNHC 251045

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 30.6N 73.0W at 25/0900 UTC or about 330 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving north at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the center mainly over the east semicircle. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.1N 49.4W at 25/0900 UTC or about 791 nm east of Bermuda. Lee is currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-33N between 39W-51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N31W to 08N33W, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is supported by 700 mb troughing and weak 850 mb vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis. Little convection is associated with the wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N64W to 09N64W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge and the western periphery of an upper-level trough axis extending from 25N54W into the tropics to near 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 16N between 60W-65W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N16W to 07N39W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N39W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N and east of 20W.



A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery over northern Mississippi, extending a trough axis across the eastern Gulf to the northern Yucatan peninsula. A weak pressure pattern exists across the entire basin, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly winds and areas of isolated showers under the influence of the mid-level lifting dynamics in place. Little change is expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, easterly flow will increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh conditions as ridging noses in from the lower Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf waters.


A tropical wave is approaching eastern Puerto Rico. Refer to the section above for details. Southwest flow aloft prevails west of 70W, and a weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 18N72W to 10N73W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the west of the wave's axis. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western half of the basin while moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 75W. A surface trough was analyzed from 16N75W to 11N74W and continues to be the focus for scattered showers between 70W- 80W.


A surface trough southwest of the island enhanced showers across southern portions of the area. The trough will slide further westward through the next 24 hours as weak ridging builds in from the central Atlantic.


A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Outside the influence of Maria in the west Atlantic and Lee in the central Atlantic, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the region. A 1021 mb high is centered east-northeast from Bermuda near 35N58W and a 1022 mb high is centered across the east Atlantic near 33N23W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ ERA