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AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE MOVED INLAND IN MEXICO BETWEEN CAMPECHE AND CIUDAD DEL CARMEN JUST AFTER 23/0000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION WAS DECLARED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AFTER LANDFALL. THE LAST ADVISORY WAS WRITTEN ABOUT WHAT IS NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE AT 23/0300 UTC. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS LISTED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS LISTED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N91W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 4N TO 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N60W...TO 7N61W IN EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N27W TO 6N34W TO 6N38W...6N41W 3N47W...AND TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE U.S.A EAST COAST NEAR 39N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CYCLONIC CENTER THROUGH 32N74W TO 30N75W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 63W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH WHICH STARTS IN FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N81W 27N87W 23N90W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME LINE. THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ARE PART OF THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAM THAT ORIGINATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N56W AND THAT REACH NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N76W...TO FLORIDA ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 27N87W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N87W TO 26N95W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM 30N71W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING TO 22N93W. THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVERTAKEN BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF IT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX... KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FORT MYERS FLORIDA IS REPORTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN IS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO MARATHON KEY.


...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 54W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N64W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...BEYOND NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 27N70W 23N81W...BEYOND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND ITS BORDER WITH NORTHERN BELIZE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA AND IN CUBA FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N81.5W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 23N85.5W...AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N78W...ACROSS THE REST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST...THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT THIS MOMENT.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE STILL COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N55W...TO THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER...TO 24N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N30W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N30W TO 29N28W...TO 23N31W 17N34W...AND TO 13N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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