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AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF PORTUGAL IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N10W TO 31N30W. WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT FROM 30N TO 35N W OF 12W. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 6N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INCLUDING THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N90W TO 23N93W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE TX COAST NEAR 28N97W. DRY AIR IS PREVENTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN BASIN...WHILE E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SE BASIN AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 20N76W TO 16N82W TO 12N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THIS FRONT. EAST TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT W OF 73W...AND 15 TO 20 KT E OF 73W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THE COLD FRONTS WILL MERGE AND BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THESE FRONTS EVEN AS THEY WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND APPROACH HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THIS FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 53W IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N56W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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