AXNT20 KNHC 291806

205 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie was centered near 33.2N 79.6W at 29/1500 UTC, and is now inland over coastal South Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 31N to 33N between 79W and 82W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N36W to 03N40W moving W at around 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 34W and 44W, and is near the leading edge of a surge of deep tropical moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 33W and 40W.

Tropical wave extends from 14N67W to 05N67W moving W at around 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 64W and 70W and is embedded in moderate to high moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 61W and 69W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N81W to 06N82W moving W at around 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 79W and 86W north of 09N. Isolated moderate convection is south of 12N and west of 77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N19W, where the ITCZ axis begins and extends to 04N30W to 04N40W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is north of 03N east of 10W, from 03N to 08N between 25W and 33W, and within 120 nm of the South America coast between 50W and 60W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1020 mb high is centered near 29N89W supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the Gulf east of 91W. Mainly moderate easterly winds are W of 91W except moderate to fresh within 90 nm of a diurnal surface trough that as of 1200 UTC extended from 22N92W to 18N94W. Subtropical jet stream energy moving sw to ne over Mexico and Texas supports isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and west of 90W over the Gulf basin. Over the next 24 hours the center of the high will reposition over the northwestern Gulf. Generally fair weather will continue over the basin through Mon night with mainly gentle to moderate winds, except moderate to fresh near the thermal trough that develops over the Yucatan in the evening and moves westward through the morning toward Vera Cruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad middle to upper level trough remains over the central Caribbean today. Dry air and subsidence resides north of 12N and west of 81W. Isolated moderate convection is under the trough axis north of 14N between 72W and 81W. On the east side of the trough where shear is high, clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring mainly east of 64W including the Lesser Antilles. Diurnally enhanced afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring over the Greater Antilles. A 1012 mb low is centered over the coast of Colombia and is supporting isolated moderate convection within 90 nm of the low center. Other convection over the southern Caribbean is primarily associated with two tropical waves. Please refer to the tropical waves section for further details. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds cover the Caribbean today. Over the next 24 hours the middle to upper level trough is forecast to remain nearly stationary with ongoing convection over the central Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA... Middle to upper level trough over the region supports scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island today. Overall activity will diminish overnight due to the loss of daytime heating. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain over the area due to the proximity of the trough. This trough will continue to support enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity into the early part of the week.


Tropical Depression Bonnie has moved onshore South Carolina as of late this morning. Please refer to the special features section for further details. A broad middle to upper level trough from the Bahamas to central Caribbean supports isolated moderate convection over the southwest north Atlc between 68W and 79W. Latest scatterometer data indicates a surface trough has developed near 23N63W and is supporting showers and scattered thunderstorms from 20N to 26N between 68W and 65W. Farther east, A ridge axis covers the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N49W, and another 1025 mb high near 28N49W. A pair of weak lows are causing weaknesses in the ridge. The westernmost low of 1022 mb is centered near 27N35W with a surface trough extending from 29N35W through the low center to 25N38W. The easternmost low of 1022 mb is centered near 28N24W with a surface trough extending from 30N23W through the low center to near 25N27W. No deep convection is noted with these lows and troughs. A tropical wave is over the central Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for further details.

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