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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 03N30W and 03N35W. A second ITCZ is along 01N23W 01N29W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 01S38W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between 20W and 36W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 04N southward between 04W and 10W, and from 07N southward between 40W and 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The middle level-to-upper level trough from 24 hours ago has moved across Florida, and into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. High level clouds are moving with the SW wind flow, now covering the area from 29N southward from 84W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 29N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N, in the SW corner of the area.


...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, with areas of 1 to 3 miles at many of the platform sites, and some areas of 3 to 5 miles.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: mist and haze and 3 to 5 miles, mostly in the Lower Valley, and spread elsewhere from the middle Texas coastal plains northeastward. LOUISIANA: light rain in Lafayette. mist and haze and 5 miles in the coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI: Mist and 5 miles in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. FLORIDA: mist and haze and 3 to 5 miles in some areas of the Panhandle from Panama City westward. Mist, haze, and fog and 1 mile or less in some areas, from Tallahassee to Naples. Other areas have 3 to 5 miles of visibility along the Gulf of Mexico coast.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W wind flow moves across Central America to 80W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N southward from 80W eastward.

Upper level SW wind flow spans much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, across the Greater Antilles, into the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 20N between the Mona Passage and 80W, and from 12N to 20N between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 72W in the Caribbean Sea.


...HISPANIOLA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from a 29N71W cyclonic circulation center, to the northern coastal border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible, inland and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. A trough will be to the N and NE, in the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a mixture of W and NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the first 12 hours or so of day one, of the 48-hour forecast. Expect broad cyclonic wind flow during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that more than one inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Expect periods of broad cyclonic wind flow.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from a 29N71W cyclonic circulation center, to the northern coastal border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderatefrom 17N in the Caribbean Sea northward into the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 80W.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N55W, to 24N54W, to 16N56W, and 12N56W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through a mean 32N25W cyclonic circulation center, to 26N23W, 20N27W and 18N29W. A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 30N25W, to 28N23W and 24N25W 22N33W and 22N36W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 32N15W 27N17W 31N22W 31N30W northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, from 18N northward between 20W and 60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 05N northward between 40W and 80W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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