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AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 07N14W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 13W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N93W TO 25N91W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE TROUGHING LACKS A SURFACE FRONT...SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE THE PRIMARY INGREDIENT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-86W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 78W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS EVENING. WHILE NO SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-30N W OF 70W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 38N39W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW TO 28N50W TO 25N61W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 25W-41W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. FINALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N09W SW TO 25N20W TO 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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