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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W- 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE E GULF AND ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PREVAILS BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 27N AND E OF 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED INLAND ALONG THE GULF STATES. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17 AND E OF 70W...AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-74W...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N81W TO 29N77W TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES E OF THE LOW TO 31N56W TO 25N40W. A COLD FRONT BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 31N24W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 70W SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. ASIDE FROM THIS...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONTS TO WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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