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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N20W AND EXTENDS TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N51W TO 04N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 00W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 47W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 15-20 KT NW FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO 25N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO ARKANSAS NEAR 34N91W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N75W TO E NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N80W TO N COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 15-20 KT N FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO S NICARAGUA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N69W TO E CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A VERY LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND REACH 31N67W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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